In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The 2-year US Treasury yield approached 4.4%, and the probability of a 25BP rate hike in September rebounded to about 58%–60%. US stocks came under pressure, while crypto showed relative resilience.
Current market quotes are approximately: BTC 78,400–78,800, down about 1% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,465–2,475, still within its range; ZEC fell from around 1,250 over the weekend to 1,125–1,135, but is still up more than 30% on the weekly chart. The Grayscale ZEC Spot ETF (ZCSH) has been launched, becoming a core channel for this round of privacy coin repricing.
BTC
Resistance: 80,000, with the key area at 81,000–82,300 (the recent high).
Support: 78,000 is the short-term dividing line; if broken, look to 76,500–77,000, and further down to 75,500.
Outlook: Still high-level consolidation, not a trend break. Only if the daily closes remain below 78,000 with increased volume should weakness be considered.
ETH
Resistance: 2,510–2,550.
Support: 2,430–2,450, and further down at 2,330–2,350.
Outlook: Follows BTC on rallies, not on declines, lacking independent catalysts. If BTC holds, ETH will likely continue sideways; if BTC breaks down, ETH is more likely to test 2,430 first.
ZEC
Resistance: 1,180–1,200, with the previous high at 1,250.
Support: 1,100–1,120 as the first line of defense, 1,000 as the psychological level, further down at 880–900.
Outlook: The moving averages are still bullish, but after the short-term overbought, it's a question of "who will take over." For held positions, watch 1,100; for new positions, wait for a pullback to 1,000–1,100 with shrinking volume, and do not chase above 1,130.
Strategy
For the broader market, watch the 78,000 support; elasticity depends on rotations. Do not go short on BTC unless the level breaks, ETH follows BTC, and only buy ZEC on pullbacks, not at peaks. With FOMC approaching, reduce leverage in advance.
