WTI Oil climbs as Middle East supply risks remain evelated

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil edges higher on Monday as fresh attacks by the United States and Iran over the weekend add to already elevated supply concerns from the months-long war in the Middle East. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $91.15 per barrel, its highest level since July 24.

US Central Command said it struck three Iranian vessels, including one near Kharg Island, another near Jask and an empty tanker in the Gulf of Oman, in response to earlier Iranian missile attacks on US Navy warships.

Iranian state media reported on Sunday that its forces struck an unmanned US vessel, although US Central Command denied the claim. Iran also said it targeted three commercial Oil tankers travelling along routes Tehran considers unauthorised.

Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tehran will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and announce a new shipping route agreed with Oman in the coming days.

Adding to supply concerns, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Aramco’s Jazan Oil refinery was hit by a fresh strike on Monday. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, while Aramco has not publicly commented. The facility can process around 400,000 barrels of crude per day.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept its Oil output policy unchanged for October at Sunday’s meeting. With no fresh supply increase announced, Oil prices are likely to stay sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East as the United States and Iran trade threats of further retaliation.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, WTI US Oil retains a bullish bias as it holds well above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA.

Price also trades above the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA around $84, while momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 65 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) positive above zero, hinting that upside pressure remains in place but is edging toward overextended territory.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the Bollinger upper band around $91. A daily close above this level would open the door to further gains and extend the current bullish phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the current area, with a pullback toward the 100-day SMA at $85 and the Bollinger mid-line at $84 likely to attract dip-buying interest, while deeper declines would look to the Bollinger lower band and the 200-day SMA near $78 as a more significant demand zone.