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Morgan Stanley: Net supply of eurozone government bonds is expected to increase by 4% in 2027, with France and Belgium leading in deficits

Morgan Stanley: Net supply of eurozone government bonds is expected to increase by 4% in 2027, with France and Belgium leading in deficits

智通财经智通财经2026/09/07 05:46
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(1) The total government bond issuance of the 11 largest eurozone issuing countries is expected to increase from €1.472 trillion in 2026 to €1.533 trillion in 2027, an increase of approximately 4%. (2) The overall fiscal stance in the eurozone is expected to remain basically unchanged, with the total deficit as a percentage of GDP projected at 3.5%, slightly higher than 3.4% in 2026; among them, France and Belgium have the largest deficits, accounting for 5.2% and 5.1% of GDP, respectively. (3) Supply pressure is increasingly concentrated in the core and semi-core markets, mainly driven by higher fiscal financing needs in Germany; among the four major issuers (Germany, Italy, France, Spain), Italy shows the most significant decline in net supply.
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