The first major "exam" after the Cook era! Morgan Stanley: Apple's (AAPL.US) autumn launch event is the most important in ten years; the first foldable iPhone may spark a new wave of growth

According to Jinse Finance APP, Morgan Stanley analysts have stated that the upcoming "Surprise and Shine" autumn product launch by Apple (AAPL.US), scheduled for September 9, may become the company's most important product release in nearly a decade.

The Morgan Stanley analyst team led by Erik Woodring said in a report to investors: "Apple's 'Surprise and Shine' launch event on Wednesday is expected to follow a very similar format to recent years—a 90-minute presentation introducing Apple's latest devices, including Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, AirPods 5, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, and most importantly—the company's first foldable iPhone."

He added: "However, this launch will be far from an ordinary product event. For the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not be the main figure at the event. Instead, the new CEO Turnas will lead the company into the most significant change in iPhone's product form in nearly a decade, officially unveiling the highly anticipated foldable iPhone. At the same time, Apple may also implement the largest and most widespread price hike for same-configuration iPhones in the company's history."

If Apple's first foldable phone receives a positive response from consumers, it could make a significant contribution to revenue in the December quarter. Analysts pointed out: "We currently expect Apple to ship about 6.5 million foldable iPhones in the December quarter, corresponding to approximately $14 billion in revenue and accounting for 16% of total iPhone revenue for that quarter."

Analysts stated: "Beyond the short-term financial contribution, it is worth noting how Apple will leverage the larger product form and whether it can offer experiences that are better on a foldable device, rather than just providing a larger screen—most importantly, what the hands-on experience of the device will actually feel like. If consumer response is strong, we believe the eventual scale of this product category may exceed the levels currently suggested by the supply chain forecast."

Another key issue to watch is how consumers will respond to price hikes across the new iPhone lineup. Morgan Stanley expects the price increase for the iPhone Pro series, at the same configuration, to be between $200 and $500. The firm expects the starting price for the 512GB version of the foldable iPhone to reach $2,399, while the 2TB version will be priced at $3,199.

Analysts stated: "With the significant increase in NAND and DRAM costs, we still expect Apple to raise the starting prices of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by $200, and for models with higher storage capacities, the increase may be even greater." "Based on our forecasts for Apple's memory costs, such pricing measures will allow Apple to maintain an iPhone gross margin of about 40%, roughly in line with the 39.9% average between FY21 and FY25."