Ariston: Why Buy Brazilian Assets? A Macro Trade Case Study on How to Stay Ahead of the Curve 260903

地平线全球策略2026/09/03 04:37

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Why invest in Brazilian assets? Below are some excerpts from my internal reports to subscribers on August 16, August 23, and August 30. As of today, both the Brazilian stock index and EWZ have returned to historical highs.

Figure 1: As of today, both the Brazilian stock index and EWZ have returned to historical highs

In fact, only if you deeply understand price and fundamentals (both are indispensable), can you truly stay ahead of the curve:

1/ Pay attention to USDBRL and EWZ, both are at key levels. Subjectively, the possibility of a reversal is higher. Brazil's real yield is still about 6%—7%. The market is overly focused on whether Lula can be re-elected, while ignoring the more essential economic system. If a reversal happens, we will bet by going long on EWZ. Don't jump the gun...

Figure 2: From "ARI'S WEEKLY WRAP 260816"

2/ USDBRL bullish breakout failed during the week as expected, then reversed. Again, it's the core issue: why consider fundamentals, why use a three-system approach. From the perspective of the deeper economic system, reversal is the expected path, and indeed it reversed this week. Fundamentals are prior—they can move ahead of price (of course, as someone who doesn't set prices, you must wait for price confirmation. Never jump the gun).

There may be further reversals, but before the future price speaks for itself, trust the price today.

Opened EWZ positions simultaneously, stop-loss set at the lowest point of the reversal day...

Figure 3: From "ARI'S WEEKLY WRAP 260823"

3/ Still holding a short position on USDBRL, affected by events on Friday, but our stop-loss held, and the test at the day's high was successful. On a larger scale, the weekly chart is in the Ariston Channel bear channel.

EWZ, stop-loss moved into profit, placed just below the lowest point of the follow-up day...

Figure 4: From "ARI'S WEEKLY WRAP 260830"

As of today, both the Brazilian stock index and EWZ have returned to historical highs

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.