CITIC Securities expects the US to maintain interest rates in September, with inflation risks under control.

CITIC Securities stated that the U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose 0.2%, both in line with expectations. The rebound in core goods and the recovery of core services led to a slight increase in CPI, while energy prices declined for the second consecutive month, offsetting some upward pressure. The year-on-year growth rate of July PPI continued to slow. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran brings uncertainty, but overall inflation risk in the U.S. is controllable. CITIC Securities expects that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September. AI interpretation: The inflation data is in line with market expectations, and the moderate fluctuations in core indicators confirm that price pressures are within a controllable range. The continuous decline in energy prices has effectively hedged the rising costs in the service sector, maintaining a stable overall inflation environment. Given the current economic background, the Federal Reserve lacks a pressing reason for further rate hikes, making it an inevitable policy choice to keep interest rates unchanged. This decision path will guide market expectations back to rationality and leave a window for observation for subsequent monetary policy adjustments.