(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as softer U.S. private-payrolls data and an intraday pullback in Treasury yields helped precious metals recover from early-session lows. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,386.70 an ounce, up 1.36%, while spot silver was trading at $65.200, up 1.95% on the session.
North American equity markets closed higher as technology shares recovered and bond yields eased from the day’s highs. The S&P 500 rose 35.13 points, or 0.5%, to 7,666.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 295.07 points, or 0.6%, to 53,061.95, the Nasdaq Composite added 118.05 points, or 0.5%, to 26,217.83, and the Russell 2000 rose 33.03 points, or 1.1%, to 2,953.17. European markets finished lower as elevated energy prices and bond yields weighed on risk appetite. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.24% to 645.94, the FTSE 100 declined 0.32% to 10,789, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.14% to 25,958, France’s CAC 40 lost 0.39% to 8,302, and Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.33% to 51,915.
The latest positioning remains anchored in Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report, but Wednesday’s data softened the hawkish edge. ADP said private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations and the weakest reading since January, while the Fed’s Beige Book showed modest economic growth, very slight employment gains and moderate price increases. Fed-hike odds slipped to about 64% from 67%, the two-year Treasury yield eased to 4.383% and the 10-year yield slipped to 4.793% after touching 4.814% earlier in the session. The data were not soft enough to break the September-hike trade, but they did force some short-covering in metals. The next tests are Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and ISM services data, followed by Friday’s payrolls report.
Precious metals bounced, but the recovery is still a counter-move inside a damaged chart. Gold traded down to $4,281.70, inside the $4,319.60 to $4,230.51 retracement zone highlighted in the latest technical work, before recovering above $4,380. Silver rebounded from $63.20 after losing the $65.37 support area earlier in the week, but it remains below the $66.87 pivot and the $67.21 resistance level. The message is constructive only at the margin: yields stopped rising, the dollar softened and ADP missed, but oil remains high and Friday’s payrolls report still controls the next directional move.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. The U.S. and Iran exchanged the largest round of fire since July, with Washington striking Iranian targets and Tehran retaliating across the Gulf region. The U.S. says it has control of the strait, but shipping remains constrained, Iran continues to disrupt traffic and crude prices are still carrying a war premium. Brent crude settled up 1% at $95.63 a barrel, while WTI remained above $90. For gold, the setup remains conflicted: Hormuz risk supports safe-haven demand, but high crude keeps inflation pressure alive, limits the Fed’s room to sound dovish and keeps the rates channel working against non-yielding metals.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading above $90 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $95.63. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near 4.79%. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,422.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,487.00 and then $4,573.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,319.60, with deeper downside targets at $4,230.51 and then $4,222.93. First resistance is seen at $4,422.00 and then at $4,487.00. First support is seen at $4,319.60 and then at $4,230.51.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $66.87, with a move above that level targeting $67.21 and then $68.74. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $62.98, with deeper downside targets at $62.56 and then $61.55. First resistance is seen at $66.87 and then at $67.21. Next support is seen at $62.98 and then at $62.56.
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