TD Securities: Gold prices may fall back to the 4,200 level in the short term, expected to reach $5,350 by 2027

　　Source: Golden Ten Data

　　TD Securities pointed out in its latest commodities strategy report that despite the recent weakness of the US dollar, the gold market still faces significant short-term downward pressure. After Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sent out strong hawkish signals,

　　At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve's firm determination to bring inflation back to its 2% target. He clearly stated that the current financial environment has not reached a tight level, and signs of cooling inflation are not yet clear. As a result,

This change in expectations has significantly boosted short-end US Treasury yields, causing gold prices to remain under pressure recently, fluctuating around $4,430.

　　TD Securities analysis believes that the challenge facing gold investors is currently the shift in driving factors. In the past, investors tended to seek gold's safe-haven support through "US dollar depreciation trades", but as the Federal Reserve strengthens its commitment to price stability, this narrative is gradually being sidelined by the market.

　　From a deeper bond market perspective, although the US Treasury's intervention in the long-end bond market has eased financial tightening pressure to some extent and previously supported gold, this force can no longer offset the heavy suppression brought by rising short-end interest rates. Based on this, TD Securities expects that by the end of this year,

　　However, TD Securities emphasizes that this short-term pain does not signal the end of the long-term bull market logic. The report defines the current volatility as a "repricing phase," rather than a reversal of the trend.

　　This long-term logic is based on the assumption that inflation will eventually stabilize and the oil market will return to balance. TD Securities analyzes that when the high interest rate environment starts to substantially repress aggregate demand, the Federal Reserve will gain more policy space to reverse the tightening cycle, fulfilling its responsibility to maintain full employment. Once such a policy turning point is established, strong demand from global central banks, institutional investors, and physical retail buyers will jointly drive gold prices into a new round of structural rise.

　　The market remains highly focused on the policy direction during Trump's term and the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions.

　　TD Securities US interest rate strategist Molly Brooks stated: "If we see labor market indicators remain stable or further strengthen next week, and subsequently released inflation data is also stronger, this will send a signal

"

Editor: Zhu Henan