Bitcoin tests $81,000 as key resistance, traders watch for breakout

50-week Moving Average Becomes Crucial Resistance

Ash Crypto emphasized that the 50-week moving average typically separates bull-market phases from downturns and described $81,000 as the “most important resistance of this cycle.” Sustaining a close above this threshold, according to Ash Crypto, would offer more substantial confirmation of a bullish trend than simply spiking above it during intraday trading.

While Bitcoin has briefly surpassed $81,300, it retraced to trade around $79,700, reflecting the significance of the resistance zone. Many traders continue to monitor whether Bitcoin can establish itself above the 50-week average, as this level has historically marked decisive turning points in previous cycles.

Maintaining weekly closes above the 50-week moving average could signal stronger bullish confirmation, while failure to close above may leave the trend unconfirmed for now.

Drawdown Measurements and Historical Comparisons

In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s price drawdown stands at approximately 54%, a level notably less severe than the 78% and 84% pullbacks observed in previous market cycles. Ash Crypto pointed out that, despite the rebound, these drawdowns suggest a market trend that remains unconfirmed.

Momentum Indicators Shift but Trend Unconfirmed

Momentum indicators have turned positive according to Ash Crypto, who highlighted the MACD, RSI, and Stoch RSI as early bullish signals. However, these technical readings on their own do not confirm a new bull market, and any sustained reversal depends on Bitcoin’s ability to close above $81,000.

BTC’s momentum has improved, but technical traders remain cautious. Market structure and key resistance levels will likely steer market sentiment in the coming weeks.

Technical momentum is improving, but confirmation comes only with decisive closes above resistance, not just intraday spikes.

Macro Conditions and Policy Context Affect Market

Federal Reserve policy continues to play a pivotal role in shaping risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin. Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, recently commented that inflation remains above target and the central bank must ensure progress toward its objectives. This macro backdrop of interest rate policy and liquidity factors could contribute to asset price volatility, particularly for cryptocurrencies.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is also in focus after Bitcoin experienced rallies through September following the last three meetings. However, Ash Crypto cautioned that each policy cycle is unique, and past correlations may not predict future movements.

For traders and holders, the central question remains whether Bitcoin can confirm a trend reversal by holding above these technical levels. Failure to do so could leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure and continued recovery attempts, rather than establishing a clear bull trend.

Mini dictionary: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an annual gathering hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, where central bankers, finance ministers, and academics discuss economic and policy issues that can influence global financial markets.