Vietnam: Exports and consumption stay robust – DBS

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow forecast Vietnam’s goods exports to maintain strong double-digit growth at 27% year-on-year in August 2026, led by electronics and supported by external demand. Retail sales and tourism-related spending are seen as resilient, while headline inflation is expected to hold at 4.4%, below May’s peak but still elevated due to firm food and housing costs.

Electronics exports drive strong momentum

"We expect Vietnam’s goods exports to extend their run of robust double-digit growth, expanding by 27.0% yoy in August 2026, up from 25.0% yoy in July, driven primarily by strong electronics shipments amid supportive external demand."

"Retail sales likely remained strong in the year to August, supported by resilient domestic consumption and tourism-related spending."

"We see headline inflation holding at a still-elevated 4.4% yoy in August, although this would be below May’s peak of 5.6% yoy, as transport price increases have eased from the recent high, while food and housing inflation remained firm."