In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has seen a clear rebound, with total market capitalization rising from $2.21 trillion to $2.64 trillion, and daily trading volume surging from $40 billion to as high as $162 billion. For the momentum-driven crypto market, rising trading activity often reinforces market sentiment and further pushes prices higher.
However, daily trading volume has now dropped back to around $109 billion. Whether it can stably remain above $100 billion remains a key factor in judging market momentum. If it drops below this level, there may be a short-term correction; but from a broader market structure perspective, Bitcoin has already broken out of a bear market structure and entered a new bull market cycle. Overbought signals themselves do not necessarily mean the rally has ended.
$100 Billion Trading Volume Returns, but New Inflows Not Yet Evident
The market capitalization of stablecoins remains an important indicator for monitoring fiat inflows into the digital asset market. At present, overall changes are limited, with only Circle's USDC showing a slight increase in market cap. By comparison, between August 2024 and October 2025, USDT's market cap once rose from $120 billion to $196 billion, while USDC went from $35 billion to $75 billion. Since October 2025, similar inflows have not reappeared, so whether stablecoin market cap can expand again remains a key metric to determine if the current rally is driven by new capital or short-term leveraged speculation.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance has stayed around 58%–60% over the past few months, with a further slight increase in August. Despite visible gains in some altcoins, the necessary conditions for a broad “altseason” – retail capital inflows, sustained trading volume growth, and continued fiat inflows into the stablecoin market – have not yet materialized. Therefore, compared with high beta digital assets, sticking with Bitcoin as the core allocation still offers superior risk-adjusted returns.
Options Market Flashes Bullish Signal, $82,000 Becomes Next Key Level
Recently, Bitcoin option skew has shifted from deep negative to positive territory, reflecting increased demand for call options. This change in option pricing structure is the first time since October 2025 that a similar signal has appeared. At the same time, implied volatility for September expiry options surged from 33.8% to 41.1%, before retreating to 38.5%. Some traders have begun rolling bullish positions to October and December, or managing short-term correction risks through covered call strategies.
In terms of price, Bitcoin currently faces a short-term resistance zone between $78,214 and $82,139. While the rally has pushed it into overbought territory, in momentum-driven trends, overbought conditions can persist for extended periods, and waiting for a deep correction also brings the risk of missing out. As long as Bitcoin holds above $70,973, the primary uptrend is likely to continue; if it later breaks through and stays above $82,000, market risk appetite may rise even further.
Overall, Bitcoin's market structure has shifted from a bear to a new bull market, but whether the current rally can persist still requires further confirmation from trading volume and capital inflows. It's not surprising to see short-term consolidation around the $78,214–$82,139 resistance area, while $70,973 remains a key support level for maintaining a bullish bias. After entering September, as institutional funds and asset managers deploy new capital at the start of the month, the market may see fresh buying momentum. Going forward, whether daily trading volume can remain above $100 billion, stablecoin market capitalization can expand again, and Bitcoin can break through $82,139 will become the key factors in determining the next stage of the trend.
