Goldman Sachs estimates that the total oil exports from the Gulf amount to 15-16 million barrels per day, with actual traffic through the Hormuz Strait likely close to official US data.

(1) Goldman Sachs estimates that the recent total oil exports from the Gulf region are approximately 15 to 16 million barrels per day. Although this is still 7 to 8 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels, it has rebounded by 5 to 6 million barrels per day from the low point in March. (2) Although the above data focus on total flow in the Gulf region, the upward revision indicates that the volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz may be approaching the range of 8 to 10 million barrels per day as estimated by U.S. officials. (3) Goldman Sachs pointed out that "the increase in 'covert' transits by professional carriers and ship-to-ship transfers indicates that producers and carriers are adapting to the Middle East conflict." The bank maintains its previous view that, in a scenario of ongoing supply disruptions, the upward potential for European natural gas prices and long-term oil product contract prices will be greater than that of crude oil.