Brent: Supply risks keep prices elevated – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and tight diesel inventories continue to support Brent. With prices near USD 94 and almost 20% above their early-August lows, Brent remains well below its April peak. Lambrecht notes that global oil inventories have fallen to multi-year lows and warns that further stock drawdowns could push product prices higher.otes global reserves have fallen to multi‑year lows and warns further product drawdowns could lift Oil prices.

Strait tensions and low stocks

"Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the focus of the energy markets. Since no other major reports are scheduled, attention is also likely to turn to inventory trends. On the oil market, diesel inventories are particularly tight."

"Further drawdowns could push product prices even higher. On the European gas market, prices would likely continue to rise even if inventory levels were to increase at a slower pace."

"Even though Iranian oil exports are already severely hampered by the US naval blockade, the market is now at risk of becoming even tighter. As a result, the oil price climbed slightly higher. The price of a barrel of Brent crude has thus risen by nearly 20% over the course of the month."

"According to the IEA, global oil reserves [inventories] fell below 7.9 billion barrels at the end of July - the lowest level since April 2025."

"If stocks continue to decline ahead of the heating season - because the Middle East, as a major exporter, remains sidelined for an extended period and refinery throughput in Russia does not increase - product prices could rise even further."