QIC sees Australia home prices falling 5%-10% peak-to-trough as RBA tightening bites
Reuters2026/08/21 07:13- QIC analysis flagged a clear housing-led slowdown as evidence the RBA’s restrictive policy is cooling demand.
- Capital city house prices fell 2.8% from the peak; QIC forecast a 5%-10% peak-to-trough decline.
- Investor demand weakened following capital gains tax and negative gearing changes; CBA cited investor mortgage applications down 28% since the Federal Budget.
- Labour market resilience seen as key to limiting spillovers; wage growth around 3.25% with unemployment at 4.5% in July.
- Housing undersupply expected to cap further declines; QIC said the adjustment reduces the likelihood of another rate rise.
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