Samsung (SSNLF.US) HBM4 yield surpasses 80%, officially entering the “golden yield” phase; Q3 revenue expected to triple

According to reports, the production yield of Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) sixth-generation high bandwidth memory, HBM4, has surged from less than 60% at the initial stage of mass production to around 80%, reaching the company's year-end target ahead of schedule. In the industry, an 80% yield is known as the "golden yield," and this breakthrough signifies a critical step forward for Samsung in terms of HBM4 profitability and large-scale supply.

In February this year, Samsung was the first in the world to begin mass production and supply of HBM4, but the initial yield was below 60%. After about half a year of process optimization, the yield has achieved rapid and stable improvement. Citing industry sources, the report stated that Samsung originally planned to reach an 80% yield by the end of 2026, but now the progress is significantly ahead.

Regarding the reasons for the yield improvement, the report pointed out that Samsung's advances in thermal compression non-conductive film (TC-NCF) processes were a key driver; other analysts emphasized that enhancements in the yield of the base chip for 1c DRAM used in HBM4 have also played an important role.

With the realization of the "golden yield," Samsung's expectations for capacity expansion and profitability improvement have significantly increased. The company clearly stated that HBM4 revenue in the third quarter will increase more than threefold quarter-on-quarter, and in the second half of the year, HBM4 will account for more than 60% of Samsung’s total HBM revenue. In terms of market share, Samsung has set its year-end HBM market share target at about 38%, aligning with its share in the DRAM sector.

Analysts believe that the expansion of HBM4 output will not only robustly support NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) production of its next-generation AI accelerator Vera Rubin, but will also help major customers such as NVIDIA to diversify their supply chain and reduce excessive reliance on a single supplier.

Lee Jong-hwan, Professor of System Semiconductor Engineering at Sangmyung University in South Korea, stated that from the perspective of major customers like NVIDIA, diversifying supply sources is clearly more advantageous than relying on a single supplier. If Samsung can fully capitalize on the opportunity presented by the expanded scale of HBM4 supply, it is expected to quickly consolidate its leading position in the market.

It is also worth noting that Samsung’s competitor SK Hynix (SKHY.US) has made rapid progress with HBM4 as well. According to industry estimates, SK Hynix’s HBM4 yield has also reached around 80%. With its accumulated mass production experience across multiple generations of HBM products and its unique advanced mass reflow molded underfill (MR-MUF) technology, the industry broadly expects SK Hynix to successfully ramp up capacity in the second half of the year.