BNP Paribas India Treasury Head: The Fair Value of the Rupee is Around 96, with Limited Downside Potential This Year

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智通财经2026/08/10 10:56

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Vishal Kaushal, Head of Treasury at Crédit Agricole Bank India, stated that it is unlikely for the Indian rupee to fall below 96 per US dollar in this fiscal year. According to their model, the fair value reference for the rupee is around 96, and the expected trading range during the year will remain between 94 and 96.
The rupee closed at 95.30 on Monday. Kaushal pointed out that after previous rapid fluctuations, the upside risk for the US dollar against the rupee is now more controllable, mainly due to measures by the central bank and government to attract capital inflows, as well as the marginal decline in commodity prices.
The Reserve Bank of India launched a series of measures to attract US dollar inflows at the beginning of June. By the end of July, these measures had facilitated approximately 41 billion US dollars in capital inflow. During the same period, the government also granted tax incentives for foreign investors purchasing Indian bonds, which has attracted about 7 billion US dollars so far.
Foreign investment participation in the Indian stock market has also shown initial signs of recovery, with net purchases reaching nearly 3.5 billion US dollars since July, compared to a cumulative net outflow of more than 29 billion US dollars in the previous six months. Improved exchange rate expectations have boosted foreign investor confidence.
In the bond market, Kaushal believes there is a temporary bottom in the 10-year government bond yield around the 6.70% level. With the current yield at 6.76%, there is limited room to chase further gains. Given that the central bank is keeping rates unchanged and core inflation remains moderate, he suggests waiting for a better time to extend duration.

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