WTI Price Forecast: Bulls await sustained move above $78.00 amid supply concerns

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – kicks off the new week on a positive note amid the US-Iran standoff over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The black liquid touches a four-day high during the Asian session, with bulls now awaiting acceptance above the $78.00 mark before positioning for any further gains.

Iran stated that talks with Oman to establish a safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing an agreement. Iran, however, reiterated conditions for a full reopening of the waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions and compensation for war damage. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed a recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play and supporting crude oil prices.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices hold a modest bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76.80 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July upswing, at $76.42. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits slightly above the midline near 54, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory. Momentum indicators together suggest that upside momentum is present but not yet overstretched.

Meanwhile, any subsequent move up might confront initial resistance at the 50% retracement at $79.43, with further barriers seen at the 38.2% level around $82.43 and the 23.6% retracement near $86.15 if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $76.80 offers the first layer of support ahead of the 61.8% retracement at $76.42. A convincing break below this confluence support would weaken the current constructive tone and expose bigger corrective risk.

WTI 4-hour chart