UBS Wealth Management: Gold Likely to Remain Strong, Expected to Surpass $5,000 in the First Half of Next Year

　　The UBS Wealth Management Investment Office released a report stating that, due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, capital flows, and the demand for portfolio diversification, gold prices are still expected to have upward potential. The bank maintains its prediction that gold will surpass $5,000 in the first half of next year, with a target price of $5,200 by the end of June.

　　The bank noted that the recent rebound in gold prices has been mainly supported by market expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump announced that negotiations with Iran have resumed. Although no formal agreement has been reached, the strait is currently "in some way open." At the same time, several factors related to capital flows and fundamentals are also favorable for gold's performance, including buying interest from China, continued net inflows into gold ETFs, and the global

environment is gradually moving towards a more accommodative stance. In addition, the renewed market focus on diversifying national foreign exchange reserve allocations also supports increased demand for gold allocations.

　　UBS further pointed out that recent joint measures by the United States and Japan to stabilize the yen have reduced the risk of large-scale sell-offs in the US Treasury market, indirectly providing support to gold prices. Looking ahead, if US Treasury yields continue to decline, the US dollar weakens further, and global central banks maintain their gold-buying trend, gold is expected to remain strong.

　　In terms of investment strategy, the bank suggests that investors allocate a mid-single-digit percentage of gold in a diversified portfolio to enhance the

allocation diversification effect. Meanwhile, moderately including broad commodity exposure can further reduce the impact of single asset volatility on the overall investment portfolio.

Editor: Zhu Henan