Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnAISquareMore
British Pound: Rally against EUR and USD unlikely to last – TD Securities

British Pound: Rally against EUR and USD unlikely to last – TD Securities

FXStreetFXStreet2026/07/30 13:03

TD Securities FX strategist Howard Du highlights that GBP/USD initially rose 0.3% on the hawkish 6-3 BoE vote split, with Mann joining the hike camp. However, the rest of the committee appears comfortable holding rates given limited second-round effects. They advise fading the short-term British Pound (GBP) strength versus Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD), expecting EUR/GBP to move back toward 0.86 as United Kingdom (UK) political risk premium rebuilds.

BoE reaction and GBP cross outlook

"The BoE voted to keep rates on hold in a 6-3 vote split with Mann also joining the rate hike camp. This was not the market consensus but many forecasters including ourselves have flagged this as a risk."

"GBP/USD was +0.3% in knee-jerk reaction to the slightly more hawkish vote split; the size of the initial price action was in-line with our expectation for GBP under the hawkish scenario for this meeting."

"Other than the vote split, it would appear to us the rest of the committee is still very comfortable keeping rates on hold, given the lack of clear second-round effects observed in inflation data."

"We think the knee-jerk GBP rally should be faded vs the EUR and USD. Further paring back of September BoE rate hike pricing could weigh on GBP."

"The broad USD uptrend should stay in place until US data starts to soften; we also expect EUR/GBP to retrace back toward 0.86 in the coming months as the UK political risk premium rebuilds into the Autumn Budget."

0
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.
Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.
Trade now!

You may also like

US military strikes Iranian oil tanker, triggering geopolitical risks as Brent crude nears $97 mark

Following the US military's attack on Iranian oil tankers and Iran's announcement of new restricted navigation zones outside the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns over prolonged disruptions in key energy transport routes have intensified, leading to a sharp rise in international oil prices.

智通财经2026/09/06 23:41
US military strikes Iranian oil tanker, triggering geopolitical risks as Brent crude nears $97 mark

Geopolitical tensions overshadowing production cuts: OPEC+ maintains quotas unchanged, paper adjustments fail to resolve physical supply dilemmas

OPEC+ major oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, held a monthly video conference last Sunday and decided to keep the crude oil production quota for October unchanged, continuing the previous tone of stable production following a series of symbolic production increases.

智通财经2026/09/06 23:36
Geopolitical tensions overshadowing production cuts: OPEC+ maintains quotas unchanged, paper adjustments fail to resolve physical supply dilemmas