Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume rapidly shrinks, long squeeze risk in derivatives is accumulating

According to ChainCatcher, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative spot trading volume declined rapidly. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is unlikely to form the basis for a trend reversal and is usually merely an emotional corrective move. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound.

On a positive note, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has pulled back from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating a weakening intention to exit the market and a rise in trading intention. Although mainstream stablecoins on exchanges are still experiencing net outflows, the scale of outflows continues to narrow, and the marginal improvement in liquidity is supporting the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening spot-driven force means that derivatives' weight has relatively increased. The 7-day average perpetual futures long premium has continued to rise to $160,000 per hour, indicating that taker buying is persistently pushing perpetual prices above spot. Although open interest has declined somewhat, it remains significantly higher than its level in February this year. The current long premium is still within the normal range, but as the rebound continues, long squeeze risks will continue to accumulate—once open interest rebounds again, an intense battle between longs and shorts could lead to faster and sharper volatility, which is a potential risk to watch in advance.