Ceasefire Eases Supply Worries, Goldman Sachs Lowers Second-Quarter Oil Price Forecast but Warns of Continued Extreme Risk
BlockBeats News, April 9th: Following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 second-quarter oil price expectations: Brent crude oil from $99 to $90 per barrel, WTI crude oil from $91 to $87 per barrel.
The bank stated that the ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risk premium, coupled with a gradual recovery in the Hormuz Strait throughput, which are the main reasons for the forecast downgrade. As a result, Brent oil fell about 11% earlier this week. However, Goldman Sachs maintains its second-half oil price forecast unchanged and emphasizes the continued high uncertainty on the supply side:
If Middle East supply disruptions persist and production losses worsen
In an extreme scenario, Brent crude oil could rise to $115 per barrel
In addition, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its European TTF natural gas price expectations to €50 per megawatt-hour, but warns that if LNG transport is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to over €75. Overall, while the ceasefire has temporarily eased market tension, the energy market remains geopolitically driven in the medium to long term, with significant ongoing volatility risks.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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