INR: Realized flows show heavy selling - BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the Indian Rupee (INR) faces continued pressure, recording the highest level of realized selling among Asia-Pacific (APAC) currencies in March. Despite the significant sell-off, BNY’s tracking indicates that actual positioning remains largely flat, as the currency was previously heavily overheld for carry strategies. Savage highlights that a true value opportunity will only materialize if the currency transitions into underheld territory.
Assessing the risk reward payoff
"On a monthly average basis within APAC (and measured against other currencies in iFlow), INR was the most-sold currency on a realized basis."
"On a holdings basis, monthly average positioning in INR is largely flat, and at the onset of the conflict it was comfortably in overheld territory as a carry name."
"A more compelling risk/reward payoff would only emerge when a currency is not just heavily sold, but sold from an underheld position."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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