FiscalNote Jumps Into Booming Political Prediction Market

FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) announced a major expansion into the rapidly growing political prediction market on Thursday. The stock was trading lower in Friday’s premarket session.

This news comes as the broader market experienced declines, with the S&P 500 falling 0.14% and the Nasdaq losing 0.13%, adding pressure to shares.

Political Prediction Market

FiscalNote has introduced a preview experience at PoliticalPredictions.com, aiming to establish a presence in the rapidly growing political prediction market.

The company plans to leverage its AI capabilities and extensive datasets to engage with this emerging sector, which is gaining traction as public interest in outcome-based forecasting increases.

The addressable opportunity for political prediction markets is expanding, driven by rising consumer interest and monthly trading volumes in the billions.

FiscalNote has also appointed Dr. Laila Mintas as a Strategic Advisor, who brings over two decades of experience in prediction market design and regulation, further strengthening the company’s position in this new venture.

Josh Resnik, President & CEO of FiscalNote, said, “As public interest in politics and policy decisions accelerates, this category is poised to reshape how political insight is formed, shared, and acted upon, extending well beyond traditional audiences. With this expansion into prediction markets, FiscalNote is positioning itself to define this space over time, bringing its policy intelligence, data sets, and expertise into a category that is still taking shape.”

Apart from this, FiscalNote penned a non-binding MOU with AI-driven prediction platform 365Prediction to collaborate on market design, technology, and product development, potentially integrating FiscalNote’s policy data.

This move positions FiscalNote in the emerging political prediction space, with PoliticalPredictions.com serving as an early step to engage users, refine forecasts, and build a credible, scalable approach to political and policy insights.

Technical Analysis

The broader market experienced declines on the previous trading day, with the Dow Jones falling 0.26% and the Russell 2000 down 0.03%. FiscalNote’s decline comes as the overall market faced headwinds, indicating that company-specific factors may be influencing its performance.

The stock is currently trading 37.4% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 69% below its 100-day SMA, indicating significant weakness in the short to medium term. Shares have decreased 96.20% over the past 12 months and are positioned closer to their 52-week lows than highs.

The RSI is at 27.90, which is considered oversold, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued at this time. Meanwhile, MACD is below its signal line, indicating bearish pressure on the stock.

The combination of oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum.

• Key Resistance: $1.00
• Key Support: 80 cents

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. is slated to provide its next financial update on March 12, 2026.

• EPS Estimate: Loss of 39 cents (Up from $-1.20 YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $22.40 million (Down from $29.47 million YoY)

NOTE Price Action: FiscalNote Holdings shares were down 3.18% at $0.85 during premarket trading on Friday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $0.80.

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