July 3rd Futures Market Dynamics

According to OpenRouter data, token demand has surged 250-fold in 20 months, but 72% of traffic flows to open-source models with the lowest fees, contributing only 27% of spending. Token prices crash by 47% each quarter, while GPU rental costs soar by 160% simultaneously. Money flows to GPU holders, with bills passed on to shareholders. Goldman Sachs believes that, combined with the lack of tangible productivity gains outside the tech sector, this capital cycle is on shaky ground, with bearish sentiment prevailing.

The surge is driven by a combination of three favorable factors: 1) Anthropic's IPO prospectus and the combined $40 billion financing from Meta and SpaceX have dispelled concerns about a peak in AI capital expenditures; 2) The US FCC may restrict the import of optical modules, opening up a 3.2T market space for domestic companies; 3) There is a critical shortage in the supply of the key material indium phosphide. The resonance of explosive demand, exclusive policies, and supply constraints is ushering in a super cycle for domestic manufacturers.