Bank of America: Various factors support the Fed's first rate cut in December

Bank of America believes that due to strong service sector spending, a tight labor market, and uncertain fiscal prospects, inflation faces upward risks. Even if the PCE inflation index has been gradually approaching the target, the resilience of the US economic growth and positive output gap make any monetary easing appear premature. This supports our view that the easing cycle will begin in December. The impact and uncertainty surrounding the US election may be another reason why the US does not want to cut interest rates early.