10x Research: The narrowing discount of Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund implies a 90% probability of approving the spot Ethereum ETF

10x Research posted on social media that a few hours before the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, Gary Gensler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), tweeted that cryptocurrency investors should consider all potential risks before making any investments. Around 9 am Eastern Time today, there might be a tweet providing more explicit information about whether it is about to be approved. As SEC previously issued warning signals before the listing of ETFs related to cryptocurrency futures, January 2024 clearly indicates that Bitcoin ETF will be approved. Today, the market will wait for similar warnings.

However, approval seems to be just a formality as the discount of Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund has shrunk from -30% a week ago to only -8%. An 8% discount implies at least a 90% probability of approving an ETF. The trust fund manages assets worth $11 billion USD which is quite substantial and may see some outflows from investors cashing in profits. The key question remains: if approved when these ETFs will start trading.