Analysis: US CPI data release will not lead to a surge in Bitcoin volatility

According to ChainCatcher news, tomorrow's US inflation report will be the focus, and investors will be looking for signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. A series of recent unexpected events have weakened expectations for a rate cut. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options suggests that traders do not expect its volatility to rise significantly following the release of the report.

OrBit Markets, an institutional liquidity provider, said: “The market is pricing this event at an almost negligible premium,” noting that Bitcoin prices may fluctuate less than 2% after the CPI report is released, with almost no additional volatility. SP 500 options pricing reflects relatively high volatility.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis is consistent with OrBit's: "The options expiring on May 17 have an implied volatility of 52.8%, just 2% higher than other options, meaning traders expect a modest rise in volatility after the CPI announcement. However, Realized (historical) volatility remains below 50%, meaning expectations for significant gains or losses are not priced in.”