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If high yields persist until the first quarter of 2027, this figure will expand to $34 billion. The energy supply crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the main drivers behind this round of rising yields. Combined with structural pressures such as increased defense spending, an aging population, and AI infrastructure, the upward trend in yields may become a long-term pattern.

On August 30 local time, the U.S. military launched a new attack on Iran after more than a month, carrying out airstrikes on two Revolutionary Guard facilities on Larak Island. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles towards Jordan. Oil prices surged in response, with Brent crude temporarily exceeding $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, several senior U.S. military commanders warned internally that continued operations against Iran would be unsustainable, as only about a quarter of U.S. Navy destroyers are combat-ready. After six months of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the situation has reached a stalemate, negotiations have broken down, and both sides are under pressure.