QCP Capital Weekend Market Brief – 6 Apr 24
– We saw unusually large selling of Perp-June Basis over the last two days for both BTC and ETH.
– This has compressed the front-end and flattened the whole forward curve to 15-17% across the board.
– We suspect the flow could be Ethena related but it could also simply be large players squeezing yield out of elevated forwards as leveraged longs decrease.
– In spite of the tight range in the past week, we are picking up on more BTC bullishness (especially in comparison to ETH) for the following reasons:
1. Increasing BTC spot ETF inflows in the last few days (up to +$232m on Thu)
2. Positive headlines about key traditional finance players like Citadel, Goldman, UBS and Citi joining as Authorised Participants for Blackrock’s ETF.
3. Consistently large buying of BTC calls (vs large selling of ETH calls)
4. Reduced leverage in BTC with perp funding flat and the rest of the forward curve lower as well
5. Upcoming BTC halving narrative
– Are these 5 factors enough to take BTC another leg higher?
Bullish BTC Trade Idea: The BTC Moonshot
Deployment in USD. Profit if BTC moons. Buy if BTC dips, and get your principal back if it trades sideways.
Live examples (spot ref 68k):
26-APR expiry
– 350% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry
– If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
– If BTC is in between 50k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
28-JUN expiry
– 340% p.a. profit if BTC is above 110k at expiry
– If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
– If BTC is in between 50k and 110k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
27-DEC expiry
– 275% p.a. profit if BTC is above 150k at expiry
– If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
– If BTC is in between 50k and 150k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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