IntoTheBlock: Weekly net Ethereum inflows to exchanges hit $720 million

Significantly tightened financial conditions are heavily impacting ordinary stocks in the US stock market, with the median S&P 500 constituent falling 15% from its peak and the equity risk premium dropping below zero. Rising US Treasury yields and oil prices have pushed the financial conditions index sharply higher, resulting in a severe deterioration in breadth beneath the apparent calm of the index. Market divergence is intensifying, raising the core uncertainty of whether ordinary stocks will catch up or the index will converge downward.

The "Democratic Factor" built by JPMorgan has risen by about 20% since August, while the S&P 500 has only increased by 2.6% over the same period. Prediction platforms show that the probability of Democrats winning both chambers has surged from 23% in August to 64%. Historical data from Goldman Sachs indicates that this probability typically falls by about 5 percentage points on average before Election Day. There is a clear split among institutions: JPMorgan advocates buying on dips, while Bank of America warns that a Democratic sweep could lead to a drop of more than 10% in the stock market.