QCP Capital Market Updates–21 Mar 24

– FOMC was clearly dovish (and bullish):
1. In Powell’s press conference speech, he was not concerned about the high inflation numbers in Jan and Feb and even highlighted weakness in the labor market.
2. In the dot plot, more members shifted their projection to 3 cuts in 2024 (9 members vs 6 in Dec)

– There was a massive reaction in crypto with a complete reversal back above 67k for BTC and above 3,500 for ETH.
– Demand seems to be largely spot driven with little change in funding rates. (BTC spot ETF flow data in the next few hours will confirm the spot demand)
– The downside fear in ETH has subsided in spite of headlines around the SEC moving to classify ETH as a security.

– Will there be clear skies from here to new all-time highs? Perhaps time to put on some Accumulators or Daily Discounted DCA structures to collect BTC or ETH at discount as we head into the next quarter.
– Spot-forward basis spreads are back above 20% in the front-end. This is a zero-downside strategy for folks who are still worried about price correction from here.
– Clients may check with our desk for structure details and live pricing.