QCP Capital Market Update – 7 Mar 24

Even after the leveraged flush out 2 days ago, markets continue to be well supported. BTC has bounced back above 66k from close to 59k lows and ETH continues to break highs of this year.

The retail speculative frenzy is far from over though. Memecoins like WIF and BONK continue to pump, Altcoin funding rates are still over 50% ann. and funding rates on retail-focused exchanges like Binance and Bybit continue to be higher than Deribit.

Also, the spot-forward spread keeps getting higher and richer! This has been the most popular trade on the desk by a mile. One can now lock in 15% ann. risk-free for the whole year out to Dec 2024. One would be hard pressed to find a trade with better risk-reward.

BTC spot ETF continues to see consistently large inflows, averaging $550m daily. We believe this demand will keep the crypto uptrend in place. On Monday, Blackrock submitted an application to include BTC spot ETFs in its BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities fund. Other asset managers will no doubt follow suit and keep demand for spot ETFs strong.

Another factor providing support has been the Fed. Key speakers like Waller and Powell have affirmed that the Fed is still on path to cut rates this year. The USD has been trickling lower on this and even Gold has broke all-time highs!

The spot-forward spread continues to be the lowest hanging fruit. The following is an indicative run for BTC and ETH:

| BTC |Ann(%)|
| 29MAR24 | 17|
| 26APR24 | 19 |
| 28JUN24 | 16 |
| 27SEP24 | 16 |
| 27DEC24 | 15 |

| ETH |Ann(%)|
| 29MAR24 | 17|
| 26APR24 | 20 |
| 28JUN24 | 17 |
| 27SEP24 | 15 |
| 27DEC24 | 14 |