Goldman Sachs: The possibility of the US economy falling into a recession in the next year is less than 15%
Goldman Sachs expects that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 in the United States will be much higher than expected, at 2.4%. This reflects a financial environment of easing due to the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates and strong growth in real disposable income. Goldman Sachs still believes that the possibility of a recession in the US economy over the next 12 months is lower than market expectations of 15%.
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The US dollar has fallen for two consecutive months, and the US Treasury's buyback has forced speculators to retreat; the hawkish stance of Waller only resulted in a one-day rebound.
The US dollar extended its decline in August, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.9%, marking its second consecutive monthly drop. US Treasury Secretary Besant expanded the Treasury buyback program, sparking market speculation that US policies are intended to guide the dollar lower. Although Fed Chair Walsh reaffirmed the 2% inflation target and fueled expectations of further rate hikes, Wells Fargo warned that the Fed may not deliver on these expectations and the dollar’s weakness could persist.
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