Laevitas: TIA perpetual contract rates are negative, the upward trend may continue
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Crude oil is "coming back", but refined oil is "not coming back"; the global refining gap is widening.
According to Goldman Sachs, global refined oil exports have declined by about 6 million barrels per day year-on-year, with the Gulf region and Russia contributing three-quarters of the decrease. Unlike crude oil, which can be rerouted, damaged refineries cannot be relocated, and the Gulf region's refined oil exports have only recovered to 40% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs expects global refinery utilization rates to recover only by the second half of 2027; based on this, it has more than doubled its forecast for diesel profit margins in 2027.
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