Bitcoin Trading Analysis: Wave 4 New Buy Signal
Now keep in mind, while this appears to be a higher quality setup, it appears in the middle of a holiday week. This fact can reduce the chances of follow through since volume is generally lower. I have been warning about the lower volume holiday environment to help shape expectations effectively (especially for those who receive my Trade Scanner signals).
Volume is more likely to get back to normal levels mid week or into early next week. Does this mean you should avoid signals? That would be the conservative choice. In my opinion if you want to take a signal, just trade smaller than usual size. If the momentum fails to follow through you lose less.
The key thing to consider is this: as long as Wave 4 does NOT overlap Wave 1, the bullish impulse still stands. This serves as a guide for objective and reasonable expectations. For example, momentum may fail and price may test 40K for a third time. If a new setup appears in such a scenario, I would consider this an even higher probability, especially if we are outside of the holiday volume.
The line illustration on my chart (Wave 5?) is what I consider the ideal scenario. This is NOT to be confused with a forecast because there is NO way to know if price will play out this way. These illustrations have not played out numerous times which is the nature of a m arket that is MOSTLY RANDOM (not always random). The idea behind this is to be prepared IF price confirms, and use this to gauge reward/risk.
If you intend to trade/invest for capital appreciation, your goal for the new year should be to focus your attention on the professional side of this business. This type of information exists in the form of academic papers, legal complaints, and professional associations, NOT Youtube. More time in front of charts WILL NOT matter if you do not understand what is going on behind the charts.
A big thank you again to the community for your encouragement and support over the year.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
XRP Weekly Chart Blue Lines Point to These Long-Term Price Targets
The 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 5.4%, with the AI halo unable to hide the "inflated" risks of the S&P 500
Behind the S&P 500's record high, only 30% of its constituent stocks are above their 50-day moving average, marking the narrowest market breadth at a record high since 1990. The Russell 2000 has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and high-yield bond yields have soared to 15%. Societe Generale warns that if US Treasury yields rise to 6% and oil prices reach $150, the S&P 500 could fall by more than 20% next year. In addition, some top-performing fund managers have completely exited AI stocks in favor of energy, stating that once financing dries up, it will be "game over."
Oil tanker freight reaches a sixty-year high: shipping oil from the US to China is more expensive than launching a rocket!
The freight for a single barrel of crude oil has soared to $41, approaching half the oil price, and for a single trip, the freight was once enough to buy an oil tanker. The Middle East crisis has led to a structural shortage of shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ship-to-ship transfers extending turnaround times. VLCC freight rates have skyrocketed from an annual average of $9.2 million to $77 million—an increase of more than eight times. Refiners’ profits are being rapidly eroded, the average price of second-hand oil tankers has reached a historic high, and, unusually, surpassed the price of new vessels.
Following the Drop but Not the Rise! Silver Trapped in Difficulties
The logic of AI and solar energy demand continues to play out, yet prices are falling against the trend—macroeconomic forces such as a strengthening US dollar and rising real interest rates have completely suppressed fundamentals. Speculative funds offloaded $1.6 billion in a single week, marking a yearly peak, while CTA net short positions reversed by $2.6 billion to the highest level this year. However, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the extreme short positioning itself is building reversal momentum, highlighting an asymmetry; once macro headwinds subside, a retaliatory rebound could be easily triggered. After a similar shakeout last time, silver surged 15% in six weeks.
Crypto prices
More
