5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving period
Just over 100 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
Historically, any deeper retraces that occur during this period tend to generate fantastic Return On Investment for investors in the several months after the Halving
Could this retrace be a result of hype and speculation surrounding the Bitcoin ETF finally being resolved?
That means a deeper retrace could occur within the upcoming two months or so, between now and early March
This upcoming two month period will be crucial as any retrace during this period will likely represent the final bargain-buying opportunity for Bitcoin
2. Pre-Halving rally
Then ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
In anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News" Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally
Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself
3. Pre-Halving retrace
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur around the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep
This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks, making investors question whether the Halving was a bullish catalyst on price after all
4. Re-Accumulation
The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)
Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving
5. Parabolic Uptrend
Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
XRP Weekly Chart Blue Lines Point to These Long-Term Price Targets
The 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 5.4%, with the AI halo unable to hide the "inflated" risks of the S&P 500
Behind the S&P 500's record high, only 30% of its constituent stocks are above their 50-day moving average, marking the narrowest market breadth at a record high since 1990. The Russell 2000 has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and high-yield bond yields have soared to 15%. Societe Generale warns that if US Treasury yields rise to 6% and oil prices reach $150, the S&P 500 could fall by more than 20% next year. In addition, some top-performing fund managers have completely exited AI stocks in favor of energy, stating that once financing dries up, it will be "game over."
Oil tanker freight reaches a sixty-year high: shipping oil from the US to China is more expensive than launching a rocket!
The freight for a single barrel of crude oil has soared to $41, approaching half the oil price, and for a single trip, the freight was once enough to buy an oil tanker. The Middle East crisis has led to a structural shortage of shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ship-to-ship transfers extending turnaround times. VLCC freight rates have skyrocketed from an annual average of $9.2 million to $77 million—an increase of more than eight times. Refiners’ profits are being rapidly eroded, the average price of second-hand oil tankers has reached a historic high, and, unusually, surpassed the price of new vessels.
Following the Drop but Not the Rise! Silver Trapped in Difficulties
The logic of AI and solar energy demand continues to play out, yet prices are falling against the trend—macroeconomic forces such as a strengthening US dollar and rising real interest rates have completely suppressed fundamentals. Speculative funds offloaded $1.6 billion in a single week, marking a yearly peak, while CTA net short positions reversed by $2.6 billion to the highest level this year. However, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the extreme short positioning itself is building reversal momentum, highlighting an asymmetry; once macro headwinds subside, a retaliatory rebound could be easily triggered. After a similar shakeout last time, silver surged 15% in six weeks.
Crypto prices
More
