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ASML Raises Full-Year Guidance, Yet Falls Below $1,680 Overnight: Can an Earnings Rebound Take Hold?
By: Bitget
U.S. Overnight Trading and European Shares Diverge Following Earnings
On October 14, lithography equipment giant ASML released its third-quarter earnings. Its U.S.-listed ADRs had closed the previous session at $1,717.76, down 1.86%. Following the announcement, shares briefly fell to $1,669 in Blue Ocean overnight trading, a decline of 2.84% from the previous close, before recovering somewhat in extended-hours trading. Meanwhile, ASML's Amsterdam-listed shares opened approximately 2% higher, highlighting divergent initial market reactions to the results.
ASML had already entered a correction ahead of the earnings release. Between October 2 and October 13, its U.S.-listed ADRs declined from $1,867.31 to $1,717.76, a cumulative drop of approximately 8%. Whether the latest earnings can reverse this trend will depend on how shares perform during regular U.S. trading hours.
Revenue Jumps 55%, but Full-Year Guidance Sees Only a Modest Upgrade
ASML reported third-quarter revenue of €11.662 billion, up approximately 55% year over year but slightly below consensus expectations. Gross margin improved from 54% in the previous quarter to 57.5%, exceeding the upper end of management's prior guidance.
Sales of new lithography systems increased from 86 to 113 units, while revenue from installed-base services and upgrades rose from €2.762 billion to €3.289 billion, reflecting strong demand for equipment deliveries and capacity enhancements.
Net income reached €4.96 billion, beating market expectations, although the figure included valuation gains on ASML's equity investment in Mistral AI. Management raised its full-year revenue guidance from €43 billion–€45 billion to €44 billion–€45 billion, increasing only the lower end of the range. While profitability improved significantly, the relatively modest guidance upgrade leaves the stock's near-term valuation subject to further scrutiny.
Capacity May Still Fall Short in 2028 as Customers Discuss Orders Through 2030
The most significant takeaway from the earnings report concerns long-term equipment demand.
Management indicated that advanced logic and memory chip manufacturers continue to raise their equipment procurement forecasts. Under ASML's existing expansion plans, supply capacity in 2027 and 2028 is still expected to fall short of customer demand.
The company previously planned to increase its low-NA EUV and immersion DUV equipment capacity by approximately 30% in 2027 compared with 2026. It is now evaluating additional capacity expansion for 2028 while helping customers increase wafer output through upgrades to existing systems.
Some customers have even begun discussing equipment purchases for 2029 and 2030. However, these long-term purchasing intentions must still translate into firm orders. TSMC's October 15 earnings release, particularly its capital expenditure outlook and advanced-node expansion plans, will provide further evidence of the sustainability of this demand.
$1,680 Support Under Pressure, With Resistance Above $1,750
Technically, ASML has formed a short-term pattern of lower highs since early October, with shares falling below the 20-day moving average near $1,760.
On October 13, the stock touched an intraday low of $1,682.02 before recovering to close at $1,717.76, leaving a pronounced lower shadow on the daily candlestick. Trading volume reached approximately 1.60 million shares, above the previous session's 1.11 million and the 20-day average of roughly 1.41 million. The price action suggests some buying interest at lower levels, although the short-term downtrend remains intact.
The $1,680 area corresponds to a historical trading zone from September 18 and 21. With the stock briefly falling to $1,669 in overnight trading following earnings, this support level has already been tested.
If ASML reclaims the $1,718–$1,725 range during regular U.S. trading hours on expanding volume, shares could challenge the $1,750–$1,760 resistance zone, which includes the 20-day moving average. A confirmed breakout would bring the previous closing-price area near $1,780 into focus.
Conversely, a high-volume breakdown below $1,675, followed by a failure to reclaim $1,680, would invalidate the near-term rebound scenario. The next downside level to watch would be near the September 18 low of $1,628. Overnight volatility alone is insufficient to confirm the next directional move; price action and trading volume during regular market hours will be decisive.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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