Canada’s mining sector could capture a larger share of global capital as rising critical-mineral demand, expanding development spending and government support create opportunities from mines to processing, according to BMO Global Metals & Mining.
The outlook comes ahead of the Canada Investment Summit on Sept. 14-15, which aims to bring together major global investors and business leaders to help catalyze $1 trillion in total investment in Canada over the next five years, according to Matthew Murphy of BMO Global Metals & Mining. The federal government has identified critical minerals as one of the key areas for attracting that capital.
Canada already ranks as the world’s largest potash producer, second-largest uranium producer, and fourth-largest gold producer and aluminum refiner. Global mining expertise and leadership as well as government regulators that aim to develop the industry domestically, give the country an established base from which to expand.
Development spending is also returning to corporate capital allocation plans. As of 2025, companies planned about C$120 billion of spending on projects included in Natural Resources Canada’s 10-year Major Projects Inventory outlook, Murphy said. That is C$50 billion more than in the 2018 outlook, though still well below the previous cycle’s peak of about C$220 billion in real 2026 dollars.
The investment gap leaves substantial room for growth. BMO Equity Research forecasts annual Canadian development capital expenditures will rise more than 11% over the next two years. Mining companies covered by BMO are expected to spend C$350B on operating costs, sustaining capital, and growth projects to produce metals and minerals in Canada over the next five years.
Investment in key areas
BMO’s study asks investors to shift from upstream towards downstream investment to make end-to-end production in Canada a reality. That spending could reinforce Canada’s position as governments seek more secure supplies of commodities essential to energy, defence and advanced manufacturing, while miners increasingly consider the country for new development capital, the bank says.
For that shift to happen, the next mining investments need to focus on domestic copper smelting and refining, by-product capture, battery precursor materials, rare earth separation and other specific materials smelting and production, BMO recommends.
Infrastructure has always been a key area for investing in mining, but it now can unlock new mining districts and generate new opportunities across the country. From British Columbia to Ontario’s Ring of Fire to Nunavut in projects ranging from gold, nickel and lithium.
Considering the importance of critical minerals in the global market, BMO recommends developing niche critical-mineral supply chains, which may require government intervention where market economics alone are insufficient.
Targeted price supports could be needed for some commodities, while capital and regulatory backing for vertical integration could help companies develop more profitable downstream portions of the critical-mineral supply chain, Murphy said.
Those measures could address some of the challenges facing critical-mineral projects, including volatile prices, limited domestic processing capacity and competition for investment capital.
Infrastructure financing may provide another route to expanding the industry. Separating infrastructure investment from mine development could attract specialized infrastructure funds, reduce the cost of capital and free miners to direct more money toward production capacity and downstream facilities, according to Murphy.
Funding gap
Improving mining profitability and advancing new projects will require not only greater investment in the sector, but also careful decisions about where that capital is allocated.
Separating infrastructure and mine operations investments could attract more infrastructure funds, lower the cost of capital and bring more capital for mining capacity and downstream industry, BMO reported.
While Canadians are investing in mining, BMO finds it could be invested more domestically. It suggests that there’s an opportunity for mining infrastructure investment, especially through the Canadian pension fund that manages C$4.5T in assets that are under-allocated domestically.
Murphy said that alignment could allow Canadian pension funds to generate more competitive risk-adjusted returns domestically, while helping finance infrastructure and mining capacity needed to unlock new districts.
Canada has generated successful mining companies based in and outside of Canada for years. From Canada’s Agnico Eagle (TSX, NYSE: AEM) to top global companies such as Glencore (LON: GLEN) and BHP (ASX, LON: BHP), investment in the country’s mining sector has always been filled with opportunities and is now opening up to more.
For investors gathering at the Canada Investment Summit, BMO’s analysis suggests the opportunity is therefore broader than financing individual mines. Reaching Canada’s investment ambitions will require capital across infrastructure, mineral production, processing and other downstream industries that can turn the country’s resource base into more complete domestic supply chains.
With the increasing alignment of government, regulators, and citizens, the Canadian mining sector can offer highly competitive risk-adjusted returns and enable funds to invest in the country, BMO concludes.
