Yesterday, the market saw multiple rounds of sharp rises and falls in succession due to the impact of data, with both longs and shorts repeatedly facing liquidation. It has entered a very typical "harvesting machine market."
The hardest part of handling this kind of market is: holding positions easily encounters trend acceleration, while chasing positions often leads to sudden reversals. Price repeatedly exhausts traders' positions and mindset through constant wicks, false breakouts, and rapid pullbacks.
ETH’s volatility was particularly exaggerated, with intraday swings exceeding 11%. The ETH/BTC rate surged by about 5% at one point, and capital rotation was very obvious in a short period.
Next, the market will gradually shift its attention to next week’s FOMC meeting. As policy expectations keep changing, any hawkish signals could again suppress risk assets. Therefore, before the meeting actually takes place, high volatility and strong disagreements may remain the main theme of the market.
Today is once again entering the weekend phase of low liquidity, and after a decrease in trading depth, abnormal wicks are more likely to appear. Currently, direction is not the top priority; controlling position size and strict stop losses are the core.
₿ BTC
Opinion: Intraday consolidation, sell high buy low, avoid chasing positions.
BTC quickly retraced after the shock of the CPI data, and trends in the short to medium-term cycles once again diverged.
Currently, RSI is around 55.5, still in a neutral-to-strong region, indicating that bulls have not completely lost initiative. The 4-hour 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, and the medium-term corrective structure formed since late August has not been completely broken.
But short-term cycles have clearly cooled off.
The 4-hour RSI pulled back to around 43.3, entering the weak zone, suggesting that the previous upward momentum is waning. Therefore, it is not suitable to blindly go short or chase long positions during rebounds.
The weekend is better suited to continue following a range-bound strategy:
Monitor support near 76,000—76,500; if the rebound enters 78,000—78,500, watch for resistance and realization.
Only after a true breakout of the range should the trend mindset be switched again.
Support: 76,000-76,500
Resistance: 78,000-78,500, 79,300
⟠ ETH
Opinion: Range-bound consolidation, sell high buy low, focus on short-term overbought pullback.
Yesterday, ETH was the absolute focus of the market. Not only did the price fluctuate sharply, but the ETH/BTC rate also showed obvious strength.
From a medium-term perspective, structure remains relatively strong. The price is still holding above a key Fibonacci region, previous major resistance is gradually turning into support, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are starting to widen, the moving average structure has improved, and a bullish MACD crossover suggests bulls retain some advantage.
But the short-term is now clearly overheated.
After the price spiked to around 2,667 and quickly dropped, 1-hour KDJ and RSI both turned downward, meaning profit-taking at high levels has begun, and there’s a short-term need for continued pullback and digestion.
Therefore, the biggest mistake now would be mindlessly chasing ETH upward when it’s strong.
If the 2,500—2,460 zone can form effective support, the medium-term strong structure remains intact. If a rebound to 2,550—2,610 is followed by sluggish price, beware of a new round of high-level shakeouts.
Support: 2,500, 2,460
Resistance: 2,550, 2,580-2,610
