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TD Securities Warns: If Gold Breaks Two Key Support Levels, Sell-off May Accelerate

TD Securities Warns: If Gold Breaks Two Key Support Levels, Sell-off May Accelerate

金十数据2026/09/11 02:11
By: 金十数据

Gold has recently given back some of its gains but remains relatively strong within the precious metals sector. In a report released Thursday, TD Securities commodity analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek noted that the renewed rise in energy prices and the increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike have not changed gold's performance relative to other precious metals.

The two analysts stated that gold is still able to hold its higher range for now. However, upcoming data releases and market news will be crucial drivers for short-term prices, with inflation data being especially critical.

TD Securities is paying special attention to two price levels. The analysts wrote that if gold falls below $4,367 per ounce, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) may become moderate sellers; if it falls further below $4,300 per ounce, systematic funds are much more likely to initiate large-scale selling.

However, short-term pressure does not mean that long-term momentum disappears. TD Securities believes that a renewed theme of dollar depreciation, continued central bank gold buying at elevated levels, and renewed additions by gold ETFs all serve as significant supports for the gold price.

"Strong data and a hawkish Federal Reserve may only trigger relatively modest near-term selling and delay the next rally rather than causing a substantial decline," McKay and Melek wrote.

As of this writing, spot gold is trading near $4,327 per ounce.

TD Securities Warns: If Gold Breaks Two Key Support Levels, Sell-off May Accelerate image 0

Hawkish Warsh Puts Short-term Pressure on Gold

Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have been an important factor in TD Securities’ assessment of short-term risks for gold.

In a detailed analysis last week, Melek pointed out that Warsh’s hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole meeting may turn into a major short-term headwind for gold.

At that time, Warsh warned that inflation had not convincingly slowed. Policymakers needed to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target, emphasizing that this goal is steadfast and unwavering. He also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive.

Melek pointed out that Warsh believes, “The data does not support taming the highly elevated Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and CPI inflation indicators.” Furthermore, rising energy prices and a still-strong economy indicate that the underlying factors driving overall price increases persist.

Markets have therefore clearly adjusted their expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path. Melek stated that investors are now more likely to believe the Fed will raise rates in both September and December, a significant change from expectations prior to Warsh’s speech.

Short-term May Fall Towards $4,200, Long-term Still Bullish

Melek believes that even though the dollar remains under pressure, gold could continue to move lower in the short term.

He wrote that the Fed’s firm reiteration of its commitment to price stability—and its position that monetary policy remains the most effective tool to achieve this—means that the market may be temporarily overlooking the logic of the dollar depreciation trade.

Previously, traders drove gold prices higher as the Treasury’s intervention in the long end of the bond market loosened financial conditions. Melek believes that as this factor weakens, gold may give back some of its recent gains, falling toward the lower end of its recent $4,200–$4,700 per ounce trading range by year-end.

He also pointed out that higher rates at the front end of the curve should be able to offset any improvement in financial conditions resulting from the Treasury’s liquidity operations on the long end.

Melek believes that the current stance of the Fed chair seems slightly more hawkish than in July. The economy is performing relatively well, and inflation remains above target, so the market has already begun to price in two Fed hikes in September and December.

But if the oil market returns to balance and higher rates lead to weaker aggregate demand and eventual stabilization of inflation, the Fed should become more confident in loosening its tightening policy to fulfill its mandate of maximum employment. Melek expects this shift will ultimately support gold in reaching TD Securities’ target of $5,350 per ounce by Q3 2027.

Central banks, institutional investors, and physical gold retail investors may also become catalysts for the next rally. Melek believes these investors still see gold as an attractive portfolio diversification tool and may be waiting for a better entry price.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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