Germany: Gradual recovery with energy risks – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research’s Germany Blog analyses August hard data, highlighting volatile one-offs in construction and manufacturing but more encouraging fundamentals. Senior economists Marc Schattenberg, Felicitas Henze and Eric Heymann note healthy order books, improving sentiment indicators and fiscal stimulus supporting Q4 activity. They still flag geopolitical risks to fossil fuel prices and project full-year German GDP growth at 1%.
Manufacturing stabilizes as orders improve
"More broadly, two key factors point toward further stabilization in the manufacturing sector."
"First, order books across several industrial sectors remain healthy, despite a recent softening in incoming orders."
"Second, the significant improvement in manufacturing sentiment indicators—particularly their forward-looking production expectations components—signals that a further, albeit initially gradual, recovery is on the horizon."
"This is partly driven by fiscal stimulus increasingly feeding through to the real economy, which should support a pickup in economic activity in Q4."
"However, a key downside risk to both manufacturing output and the broader economy remains, particularly regarding the geopolitical impact on fossil fuel prices."
"Overall, we forecast full-year GDP growth of 1%, in line with the market consensus."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Correction to point 4: The market capitalization should be approximately $39 billion for Chipotle, not Starbucks. On October 8 — Starbucks (SBUX.O) shares fell by as much as 6.66%, trading at $87.35. The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the company had explored the possibility of acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.N) (link). The report stated that the progress of the potential acquisition remains unclear. Chipotle (CMG) has a market capitalization of about $39 billion. Chipotle (CMG) shares once surged by as much as 8.55% to $33.40. Chipotle did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. As of the previous trading day's close, SBUX shares were up about 10% year-to-date, while CMG shares had fallen by 12% over the same period. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Since automated translations may contain errors or lack necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them solely for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or losses resulting from the use of the automated translation function.)
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