Market Trend Analysis: Microsoft Is Set to Continue Its Rally
路透社2026/10/08 10:11Christopher Romano, Reuters, October 8 – Since the software giant issued an upbeat earnings forecast in July (link), Microsoft’s stock price has been climbing rapidly, and technical analysis indicates there may still be room for further gains. Click here to view detailed technical analysis charts. (link) Technical analysis uses historical price trends on charts to help predict the market’s next moves. Microsoft’s weekly chart shows the stock is once again approaching its all-time high set in 2025. This peak currently sits less than 5% above the current price, and a breakout above this level could trigger a strong rally. When a stock like Microsoft rises quickly—up more than 50% since its June lows—it often pauses to consolidate. Early buyers may sell to lock in profits, while new investors position themselves for the next move upward. Microsoft consolidated in a tight range between early August and late September. Chart analysts refer to this pause as “consolidation,” viewing it as a healthy sign, similar to a runner catching their breath before the next sprint. This week, Microsoft’s stock price broke above its narrow consolidation range, suggesting the next leg upwards may have begun. At this stage, analysts turn to volatility and momentum indicators to determine whether the rally can continue. One such tool is the Bollinger Bands, which are lines drawn above and below a moving average of stock prices. As price volatility increases, the width of the Bollinger Bands expands, signaling fresh momentum. Microsoft’s 20-week Bollinger Band is displaying this widening pattern. Another indicator, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), compares two moving averages of different periods to show whether buying pressure is strengthening or weakening. This indicator is also trending upward, suggesting Microsoft has the momentum to continue rising. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, Microsoft closed at $529.76 on Wednesday. To estimate the stock’s potential upside, analysts refer to the previous rise before the consolidation pattern and project similar gains upward. This suggests a possible target range of $700 to $750, provided the share price first breaks through the all-time high of $555.45. Previous highs, especially all-time tops, can slow or stop a rally as some investors choose to sell at those points. Breaking through these resistance levels often leads to faster gains. However, with overall market volatility rising recently due to high oil prices and increasing bond yields, there are risks. If Microsoft’s price drops below the $465 to $480 range, it would mean the current rally has come to an end. Microsoft has not yet responded to requests for comment by email. Chart summary: Microsoft shares have bounced back sharply from June lows. If the all-time high of $555.45 is breached, the target zone may be between $700 and $750. A drop below the $465-$480 range would indicate the rally is over. (“Market Chartbook” is a daily column written by Reuters reporters. This commentary is based on technical analysis of financial charts to help evaluate the likelihood of future price moves, but does not guarantee outcomes. This column does not constitute investment or trading advice.) (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. As automated translations may contain errors or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts; they are provided solely for the reader’s convenience. Reuters assumes no responsibility for any damages or losses resulting from the use of automated translation services.)
Christopher Romano
Reuters, October 8 - Since the software giant issued an optimistic earnings forecast in July (link), Microsoft’s share price has been climbing rapidly, and technical analysis suggests there may still be room for further gains in this rally.
Click here to view detailed technical analysis charts. (link)
Technical analysis uses historical price movements on charts to help predict the next direction of the market. Microsoft’s weekly chart shows that the stock is moving once again toward its all-time high set in 2025. That high is currently less than 5% above the current price. If the stock breaks through, it could trigger another strong upward move.
When a stock like Microsoft rises rapidly—up more than 50% since its June low—it often pauses to catch its breath. Early investors may sell to lock in gains, while new entrants set up their positions ahead of the next surge. That’s exactly what happened with Microsoft from early August to late September, as its share price traded sideways within a narrow range. Chart analysts call this pause “consolidation.” They believe it’s a healthy sign, much like a runner adjusting their breathing before the next sprint.
This week, Microsoft’s share price broke out of that narrow consolidation range. This suggests the next phase of its rally may already be underway.
At this point, analysts use tools to measure volatility and momentum, to judge whether the rally can continue.
One such tool is known as Bollinger Bands. They are two lines drawn above and below a moving average of a stock’s price. When price swings widen, Bollinger Bands expand further apart—indicating new momentum. Microsoft’s 20-week Bollinger Bands are showing this behavior.
Another indicator is called the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). It compares two moving averages of different time periods to show whether buying pressure is increasing or decreasing. This indicator is also trending upward, suggesting Microsoft has momentum to continue rising.
According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Microsoft’s closing price on Wednesday was $529.76. To estimate how much room the stock has to rise, analysts look at the move up before the latest consolidation and project that amount upward. This indicates a potential target between $700 and $750, but only if the stock first breaks through its previous all-time high of $555.45. Past peaks, especially all-time highs, can slow or halt rallies, as some investors opt to sell at these levels. If these resistance points are broken, gains often accelerate.
However, recent overall market volatility has been high, due to elevated oil prices and rising bond yields. If Microsoft’s share price falls below the $465 to $480 range, it would indicate the current rally has ended—at least temporarily.
Microsoft has not yet responded to an email seeking comment.
The chart shows:
Microsoft’s share price has rebounded sharply since the June low
If it breaks through the all-time high of $555.45, potential targets are in the $700 to $750 range
If it falls below the $465 to $480 range, the current rally would be over temporarily
(“Chart of the Markets” is a daily column written by Reuters reporters. This commentary is based on technical analysis of financial charts, which helps assess the probability of future price movements but does not guarantee outcomes. This column does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations.)
(To assist non-native English speakers, Reuters offers automated translation of its reports into several other languages. Because automated translation may contain errors or lack the necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of these texts and provides them for reader convenience only. Reuters assumes no responsibility for any damage or loss arising from use of the automated translation feature.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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