Morgan Stanley once again recommends shorting the euro against the Swiss franc as eurozone risks rise

智通财经2026/10/07 15:06

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Morgan Stanley strategists have once again recommended shorting the euro against the Swiss franc, betting that rising risk aversion and higher risk premiums on eurozone assets will weigh on the euro. In a research note published Wednesday, David Adams, Koichi Sugisaki, Andrew Watrous, and Alexander Scholefield wrote that shorting EUR/CHF can serve as a hedge against “further increases in fiscal and political risk premiums” and the risk that the ECB turns more dovish in response to bond market volatility. The strategists stated: “Although the market is highly focused on widening interest rate differentials, the increase in euro risk premiums has not been significant.” The report also mentioned that the Swiss National Bank’s concern about CHF appreciation is a risk factor for the EUR/CHF short trade and could push the currency pair higher. The strategists suggested shorting EUR/CHF with a target of 0.90 and a stop loss at 0.96. The firm continues to recommend shorting EUR/CHF, expecting the euro to generally weaken against most currencies. The strategists believe EUR/CHF is likely to continue its downward trend, though technical and positioning factors indicate that some short-term consolidation may occur.

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