WTI Price Forecast: Sticks to recovery gains below $89.00; lacks bullish conviction

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's heavy losses to an over three-week low, though it lacks follow-through. The commodity currently trades around the $88.80 region, up just over 0.80% for the day, as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the US-Iran conflict faded after US President Donald Trump turned down a seven-day ceasefire proposal from Iran. Adding to this, Qatari efforts to broker a US-Iran breakthrough have made little progress this week. Furthermore, US officials believe that Trump could order a return to major combat after the midterm elections. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and offers some support to crude oil prices, though signs of recovering Middle East exports cap the upside.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent slide, however, finds support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-September upswing. Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingering just above the oversold band near 39 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory.

This, in turn, suggests that any further recovery would likely face selling pressure at the 200-EMA, around $89.78. A sustained break above will open the way toward the $90.57 Fibonacci barrier. Further resistance is located at the 38.2% retracement at $93.24 and at $96.54 and $101.87, where the higher retracement and anchor levels are clustered. On the downside, weakness below the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $87.90 would expose deeper structural cushions at the 78.6% retracement at $84.10 and the prior cycle base near $79.26.

WTI 4-hour chart