The market awaits PCE, US stock index futures rise, 10-year US Treasury yield edges down, Brent crude drops 1%, gold stands above 4200.

After previous sell-offs, global stocks and bonds have temporarily stabilized, with the market's focus shifting to the soon-to-be-released US PCE inflation data.

On Wednesday, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.9%, on track for its largest single-day gain in three weeks. US stock futures climbed, with Dow futures up 0.5%, and European stocks opened higher. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries moved lower, Brent crude fell 1%, and spot gold gained 0.44% during the session, surpassing $4,200.

Oil prices and the US-Iran situation remain the main sources of uncertainty for markets. Higher energy costs may push up inflation and reinforce market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, driving global bond yields to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, next month's corporate earnings season will be key for the market to assess whether the high valuations of US stocks are justified by earnings.

Arjun Vij, Fund Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: "Bond selling may stop for one of the following reasons: a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, a sharp decline in US stocks prompted by a slowdown in hard economic data, or decreases in earnings and weaker performance guidance."

Key market movements are as follows:

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 opened up 0.23%, Germany's DAX up 0.43%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.39%, France's CAC 40 up 0.04%.

• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.9% at 66,753.72. Japan's TOPIX closed up 1.7% at 4,108.65. Korea's KOSPI closed down 0.48% at 6,838.04.

• 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to 5.21%.

• Brent crude fell 1.0% during the session, trading at $95.18 per barrel.

• Spot gold surpassed $4,200/oz, up 0.44% during the session.

Markets Await PCE Inflation Data, US Stock Futures Rise

US stock futures rose, Dow futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%.

The market focus has turned to Wednesday's release of the US August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, both headline and core PCE are expected to accelerate on a monthly basis in August.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that if the data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and provide justification for further policy tightening; if the data weakens, it could prompt markets to reassess the need for a rate hike in October and dampen the recent momentum in US Treasury yields.

The US dollar index has stabilized and is on track for its best monthly performance since June. As the Federal Reserve refocuses on curbing inflation, market rate expectations continue to rise. Yields across all maturities of US Treasuries have temporarily steadied, with the 10-year yield at 5.21%.

Oil Prices Retreat, Gold Surpasses $4,200

Brent crude fell by 1.0% during the session to $95.18 per barrel.

According to the latest research report from JPMorgan dated September 29, the 10-day moving average of oil exports from the Middle East has rebounded to 20.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 89% of pre-war levels in 2025, just 11% below those levels. JPMorgan's commodities research team believes the crude oil market has largely normalized. This means that despite ongoing regional conflict, substantial recovery on the supply side has been confirmed by the data.

Spot gold surpassed $4,200/oz, gaining 0.44% during the session.