Dow Jones Industrial Average gives back Friday's rally on a Boeing delay

A software bug at Boeing (BA) cost the Dow Jones Industrial Average more points than a record $150 billion buyback at Nvidia (NVDA) put back. The index closed just under 51,500, handing back about two-thirds of Friday's rally. Treasury yields climbed again, and the week's inflation and jobs numbers decide whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) follows them in October.

The FAA's fix for one 737 bug came with another

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on Monday it won't certify the 737 Max 10 until it has assessed a newly flagged software issue, and Boeing closed nearly 7% lower at its weakest level of 2026. Boeing had expected approval within weeks. FAA Administrator Bedford said the agency certified the smaller Max 7 in August on a software version that fixed one known bug and introduced a new one. US airlines said they have gone back to older software where needed, so the delay lands on new deliveries rather than on planes already flying.

The Dow weights its 30 members by share price rather than company size, so a dollar lost on any member moves the index by the same number of points. Boeing lost more than $12 a share. Nvidia rose 1.7% on the buyback and gained less than $4, which means the planemaker's slide outweighed the chipmaker's gain in index points by better than three to one. At Monday's price, Nvidia's new $150 billion authorization is roughly Boeing's entire market value.

The index still fell by less than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, because the heaviest AI losses sat mostly outside it. Meta Platforms (META) fell 4.8% and isn't a member, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), which are, slipped about 1%. The software itself came from GE Aerospace (GE), which isn't a member either.

A 70% hike with three reports still to come

The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.2% and the 30-year to about 5.5%, near their highest since 2007 and 2004. The two-year yield, the one most tied to Fed expectations, rose about 0.17 of a point in the week to September 25. The Fed raised its rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and futures put the chance of another quarter-point on October 28 near 70%. A government bond paying more than 5% for a decade competes directly for the money that owns Dow members valued on profits several years out. Counting the day of the hike, the index has fallen in six of the nine sessions since.

Tuesday brings August job openings at 14:00 GMT, forecast at 7.23 million from 7.271 million, and six scheduled Fed speeches, the first of 14 before Friday. Wednesday carries the August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) at 12:30 GMT, the inflation measure the Fed prefers, with the core reading forecast at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, up from 3.3%. A core reading at or above forecast would keep October's odds where they are and give the 10-year yield no reason to fall.

Thursday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 14:00 GMT is forecast at 54.9. Friday's September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT is forecast to show 84K jobs against 162K in August, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and hourly earnings up 0.3% MoM. A weak jobs count with steady pay could pull yields lower on the headline and leave the October case standing on wages. The first revision to Friday's count arrives with the October report in November, after the Fed has voted on the number it replaces.

The map into Wednesday's inflation number

Resistance: The index hasn't closed above 52,000 since September 21, and Friday's high just under 51,900 was as far as the rally got. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 52,400 is where the September 22 bounce stopped, so it caps any recovery that clears 52,000.

Support: Monday's low near 51,400 comes first. Beneath it, the 51,100 to 51,200 area has held twice this month, on September 16 and September 24.

Bias: Risk-reward skews lower while 52,000 caps on a closing basis, with 51,100 the first objective and the 200-day EMA near 50,300 after that. Momentum on the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has turned up from around 22, near the bottom of its range, so a bounce toward 52,000 could come before the next leg down. The call is wrong on a daily close above 52,000.

Dow Jones daily chart