Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0736 ET - The Swiss upper house's decision to tighten capital rules represents a near worst-case scenario for UBS Group, RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen and Sherry Lin write. RBC calculates an earnings per share hit of 9% from last week's parliamentary vote to require 90% CET1 backing--only 0.3 point better than the worse option of full CET1 backing. "As the base case is clearer now, UBS might look into finalizing mitigation plans--we do not believe selling itself/part of the operations are preferred options--but we don't expect any disclosure to the market before the finalization of rules," the analysts add. RBC slightly lowers its estimates after company comments that suggested a larger slowdown than it had modeled. Shares are up 0.2%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0648 ET - Ethereum falls as elevated Treasury yields and the prospect of tighter monetary policy reduce risk appetite, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. Restrictive macroeconomic conditions are offsetting inflows into ethereum exchange-traded funds and renewed ethereum accumulation by large holders of the cryptocurrency, or whales, he says. "Recent technical analysis has identified the $2,560-$2,565 area as an important support zone, while a sustained move higher would require ethereum to reclaim and hold above the upper-$2,700 area." Ether falls 1.4% to $2,648, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0637 ET - Tokenization, which creates digital units of value on a blockchain to represent ownership of an asset, offers operational efficiencies but also faces some limiting factors, HSBC digital asset analysts say in a note. This only makes sense if it brings demonstrable advantages over the current way of issue, trading and redeeming assets, they say. The benefits of tokenization include faster settlement times, 24/7 trading, less reconciliation, greater programmability, lower minimum investment sizes and potentially wider and more continuous market access, they say. Challenges include risks related to the technology underpinning tokenization, legal enforceability and limited secondary market liquidity, they say. "For now, tokenization therefore must coexist with much of the legacy financial infrastructure it ultimately seeks to improve." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0457 ET - ABN AMRO Bank's wealth management and private banking business provides a key growth opportunity for the Dutch bank, Citi analysts write. ABN AMRO is well placed to grow the unit in the Netherlands and Germany, and increase its presence in Belgium and France, Citi says. This should support net new asset estimates above company guidance, as well as above consensus fee estimates, the analysts say. Citi says it is above consensus revenue targets for the division, supported by between 9 billion euros and 10 billion euros in net new assets a year. The lender is one of Citi's top three European bank picks, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 54 euros. Shares are down 0.1% at 43.60 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0440 ET - Banco de Sabadell's revised agreement with Amundi should be modestly positive for the Spanish bank's fees, Citi analysts say in a note. Sabadell agreed to extend its partnership with the French fund manager for five more years to 2035. The deal should have a positive impact on Sabadell's fees, Citi says. However, it is likely to only be modest, with Citi forecasting a 0.4% uplift to consensus 2026 earnings per share. Customer fund growth and deposit beta assumptions--the cost of deposits compared to the average ECB deposit rate--are still likely to be the main factors influencing upside or downside to Sabadell's 2027 earnings, Citi says. Shares rise 0.2%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0416 ET - Indonesia's move to lower the minimum share price to 1 rupiah from 50 rupiah is likely to have limited impact on liquidity for stocks where investor demand remains weak, Capital Economics' Gareth Leather says. The change should improve price discovery by allowing stocks previously stuck at the 50 rupiah floor to adjust to market-clearing levels, he says. However, he says the move alone is unlikely to materially improve overall market liquidity or fully address concerns over Indonesia's market accessibility and transparency. Some stocks could also fall sharply below 50 rupiah as prices adjust to their underlying value, he adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0138 ET - The week has started with a renewed advance in oil prices, as the U.S. and Iran are still talking with no resolution in sight. Bonds are under pressure, and multi-decade-high sovereign yields are making equity investors uncomfortable, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Yields at current levels are starting to look appealing--an appeal that could encourage outflows from equities and inflows into safer bonds, she says. On the other hand, investors are warming up to the idea that the global economy has now shifted to a structurally higher inflation regime, so it might be better to continue waiting, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0137 ET - Being short in French government bonds is now a consensually owned position, while French spreads could narrow a bit once next year's budget is approved, RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding says. "Passage of a budget over the coming month could well see a retracement in spreads and we would favour a neutral stance here, looking to re-establish a short position at more favourable levels," the fixed income CIO says. The 10-year French OAT-German Bund yield spread widened above 110 bps lately, its widest since 2012. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0119 ET - The Monetary Authority of Singapore's tightening cycle is likely over, after adjusting its policy twice this year, Capital Economics say in a note. August inflation figures showed price pressures are building, with core CPI rising to a nearly a two-year high. While food price inflation remains low, there is a growing chance that El Nino would disrupt food supplies and push up imported food costs, CE says. CE notes evidence of higher energy costs feeding through into broader price pressures or rising food costs could prompt more policy tightening.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0118 ET - The U.S. dollar was a little higher in the Asian trading session as risk sentiment weakened. Brent oil increased as Iran said it would not soften its conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump rejected its proposal. The U.S dollar will likely continue to grind higher this week because of the strong U.S. economy, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. The U.S. Dollar Index could even set a new year-to-date high above 101.8 points this week, she adds. The next hurdle for traders is U.S. inflation data for August on Wednesday with the risk for a strong result, she says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0038 ET - The Fed's September rate hike is unlikely to be the beginning a tightening cycle similar to that of 2022-23, despite the market's expectation for two more increases, says BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Chi Lo. Instead, it likely marks the start of "insurance hikes" aimed at bringing inflation back to target by reversing last year's three rate cuts, he says. Further hikes won't defuse the external shocks such as wars and energy price inflation, but they will dampen financial market concerns about the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility. The Fed can't keep looking through shocks that recur or fail to fade as hoped. However, by slowing activity elsewhere in the economy to cap inflationary pressures, more rate hikes may risk pushing the economy into stagflation. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0035 ET - Japanese small- and mid-cap stocks are likely to outperform large-caps, Rakuten Securities' Masayuki Kubota says in a note. Japanese stocks remain undervalued and have considerable room to rise over the long run. In the near term, however, rising interest rates, renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns about excessive investment in artificial intelligence are likely to weigh more heavily on large-caps, the chief strategist says. Japanese small- and mid-cap stocks have lagged large-caps over the past five years, he adds. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 0.1% at 66277.11. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 28, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)