Gurman predicts iPhone Duo: The first foldable may set industry standards, Apple (AAPL.US) foldable could trigger a decade-long upgrade cycle

According to the Golden Ten Data APP, renowned financial journalist Mark Gurman stated that Apple's (AAPL.US) first foldable iPhone has the potential to turn the still experimental category of foldable phones into an industry standard. He called the device, named iPhone Duo, one of Apple's most influential products, ranking just below iMac, iPod, iPad, and Apple Watch. Although foldable smartphones have been available for years, Gurman believes Apple’s ability to integrate software, materials, and durability gives it a greater chance to win recognition from mainstream consumers.

This device, starting at $1,999, is also seen as an important debut for Apple’s new CEO John Ternus. Gurman believes that former CEO Tim Cook had an opportunity to launch the product before transitioning to Executive Chairman, but ultimately chose to let his successor take the spotlight.

Gurman thinks Apple did not opt to replace the iPhone with AR glasses or AI wearable devices, but instead reimagined the phone itself. In the future, AI assistants may handle messages, schedules, research, emails, and calls, but consumers will still need a powerful device with a large screen for reading, gaming, photography, and video conferencing. Thus, foldable phones may become the bridge between smartphones and tablets, with their large displays even replacing laptops for some daily tasks.

Apple appears to have found compelling reasons for purchasing the Duo from the outset: emphasizing video, gaming, and photography, and tailoring features specifically for the foldable form factor. The second screen can serve as a camera viewfinder or FaceTime monitor, and supports expanded widgets and upright modes without a stand. Gurman contrasts this with the Vision Pro: although technologically advanced, its high price and limited consumer appeal have made it a commercial disappointment; Apple Watch also faced initial positioning challenges but was later redefined around health and fitness.

iPhone Duo Expected to Lead Foldable Models Early Next Year

Foldable devices currently account for about 2% of global smartphone shipments, even though Samsung launched Galaxy Fold seven years ago. Gurman predicts that within ten years, foldable phones will make up the majority of new phone sales, and the iPhone Duo is expected to become the leading foldable model early next year, with demand possibly causing severe shortages and high second-hand prices. Some buyers may even purchase in the US to resell in countries where Apple’s pricing is higher.

However, this shift is expected to be more gradual than the transition from feature phones to smartphones. The main obstacle is price: starting at $1,999, which exceeds the combined cost of two standard iPhones. Gurman anticipates that as component costs decrease and Apple expands its device leasing programs outside the US, this barrier will lessen, with monthly payments eventually becoming more important than outright phone prices.

iPhone Duo Is Like a “New First-generation iPhone”

Apple may not stop at just one foldable phone. Gurman believes there could be a complete family of foldable iPhones in the future, including a larger Duo Max and a cheaper Duo SE or Duo mini. The Duo name offers more flexibility for expansion than the “iPhone Ultra” which was once considered internally by the company.

Apple may not be able to dominate the foldable market for long. Gurman predicts Duo's role may mirror that of the original iPhone: establishing a product format that is later adopted and improved upon by competitors. For Apple and investors, the bigger opportunity isn't just in selling high-end phones. If Gurman's forecast is accurate, Duo could usher in a long replacement cycle, create new high-priced iPhone tiers, and revitalize the global smartphone market, which has struggled to provide genuine upgrade reasons for consumers.