Commerzbank: European TTF natural gas prices may reach 75 euros/MWh by the end of the year

European natural gas prices are expected to remain high. Commerzbank forecasts that by the end of this year, Europe's benchmark TTF natural gas price will reach 75 euros per megawatt hour, significantly higher than the previous projection of 50 euros per megawatt hour. Currently, the TTF natural gas price is around 81 euros per megawatt hour. Commerzbank commodity analyst Norman Liebke stated that there is little likelihood of a physical shortage of natural gas in Europe, but competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the market is expected to remain intense, especially after Qatar sharply reduced its production and exports of natural gas. Most of the remaining LNG cargoes from Qatar are now shipped to Asian countries such as India and to countries along the Persian Gulf coast, with shipments to Europe effectively halted. Unlike crude oil, the alternative export routes for LNG are limited, further increasing Europe's vulnerability to changes in supply. Liebke noted that as the European Union gradually phases out imports of Russian LNG and pipeline natural gas starting in 2027, Europe's natural gas supply outlook could become even tighter.