IEA warns that the resumption of Gulf oil flows will be delayed until 2027, and the oil supply gap will widen in 2026

⑴The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, stating that Middle East tensions show no signs of easing, normal oil shipments from the Gulf will be delayed until 2027, pushing up fuel prices; institutions have raised their expectations for declining supply, estimating that by 2026, global daily oil supply will decrease by 5.7 million barrels, a drop of approximately 6%. ⑵Tanker attacks in Middle Eastern shipping lanes have increased, with Brent crude approaching $110 per barrel this week and refined products such as diesel seeing even larger gains; high oil prices are suppressing demand, but supply is shrinking even faster, and inventories are being depleted at a record pace. ⑶IEA data shows that in August, global oil inventories fell by an average of 3.1 million barrels per day, bringing inventory levels back to those of 2023; institutions have warned that buffer inventories are steadily declining, global refining systems are running near maximum capacity, and if the conflict does not progress, the oil market will tighten further. ⑷Due to attacks on energy facilities, OPEC+ oil output in August fell to 38.8 million barrels per day; Saudi crude oil supply dropped to 6 million barrels per day, a more than thirty-year low, and shipping in the Red Sea continues to face security threats. ⑸The IEA has revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward to a daily decline of 2.5 million barrels; OPEC still expects a small increase in demand this year. Both agencies predict that global oil demand will rebound in 2027.